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2008 AA Predictions

I decided to wait till after the tryout camp in Fort Worth was over last weekend and then do my evaluation of each team based on the current rosters. The rosters going into camp likely aren't to change all that much as most teams have their core players signed.

So here goes. Please bear with my lengthy observation of the Cats, as I've been a diehard fan of them since they formed in 2000 and have followed their player and personnel changes, additions and trades religously the whole time, so I am more familiar with them than anyone. I think I know what I'm talking about...But since I was wrong last year about the Cats winning the title again, maybe some of what I say can be taken with a grain of salt.

Overall standings:

North:

St.Paul

Sioux Falls

Lincoln

Sioux City

Wichita

South:

El Paso

Fort Worth

Shreveport

Pensacola

Grand Prairie

North

St. Paul - These guys have to be the odds-on favorite for the title this year. The Saints have just about everyone back from last years' division winning team, both in the lineup and on the pitching staff. Adding Pichi Balet certainly helped the rich get richer. After failing to win it all two years in a row, third time is the charm, I say, for the Saints this season as they'll win both halves of the season running away and win another title to add to their storied past.

Sioux Falls - Looked like a serious threat to St.Paul last year and faded. They've added some new pitching that looks solid and have an experienced lineup. They won't fade this time with that bolstered pitching staff.

Lincoln - Rebuilding job with a lot of the lineup this year will make things interesting. But they'e always done well under a manager who gets the most out of his players and knows how to fit the pieces together. Wouldn't count them out of a playoff spot, will be close between them and SxF.

Sioux City - Looking at their lineup, not seeing anything new that makes any kind of impression that this team will be better than last year.

Wichita - When you're an expansion team, you're at least guaranteed 22 warm bodies in your lineup. Looking at their roster reminds me of the line in Major League where the two fans are looking over the roster and asking "who ARE these guys?"

Oh well, you gotta start somehere.

South:

El Paso- Most of the same lineup and starting pitching is back from last year's team. And they are likely hungrier than ever and remember how POed they were over blowing that 2-0 South Division Championship Series lead last year to Fort Worth. They look like the team to beat in the South since it looks like Fort Worth may be somewhat ordinary this year. Everyone else will be fighting for the other playoff spot in the South as I think El Paso wins both halves of the season.

Fort Worth - This looks like the year the defending champs take a step back to actually being closer to the rest of the pack than a division challenger. To clarify, SB, this team is not a team with a "totally new roster". Hit by retirements and signings by affiliated teams, these guys will have a new look this year. Only two position starters return from last year's squad, and a few guys who played for them last year but never started will have to carry the load this year. The Cats still have arguably the two best starting pitchers in the league back from last year. This was the best overall starting pitching staff in the league, and they should still have plenty enough to keep them close in games again this year. Then there is the all new manager and coaching staff (with the exception of the institution known as Twig, who is back again for what seems like the 1,876,921th time).

But don't count these guys out. Chad Treadway is a terrific choice for the new manager. The guy knows indy ball and how to find good players, having won championships in the old CBL. Fort Worth never could beat those guys, and I always admired Treadway's teams because of their discipline and fundamentals tied in with talent. I am picking Ft Worth for the playoff spot because of Treadway. They might not win it all again or make the playoffs this season, but Treadway's teams will battle you till the final out and play hard. He will win championships, but not this season.We will know soon enough how the new guys mesh in Treadaway's system.

Shreveport - New manager with a lot of the same guys back last year. Solid pitching staff that will keep the Sports in every game. Will they respond to the new manager? Two years ago, I told their manager that I thought they were a couple solid starters and an rbi hitter away from challenging for a title. In my opinion, they vastly underachieved last year with the same talent. I like to think it will be a battle all season between the Sports and Ft Worth for second.

Pensacola - I look at their roster and it looks like last year's. None of the offseason pickups they have gotten just don't impress (Seems like mostly St. Joe's refugees). The Pelicans haven't shown anything since Bernie Carbo quit as manager. Looks like more of the same this year, this time battling GP to stay out of last place.

Grand Prairie - They certainly have a lot of players signed. I see that a couple really good veteran ones signed with GP, which will help them with the inexperienced players right away. There are a handful of ex St. Joes and Fort Worth pitchers in the lineup too. However, those are EX-players with those teams for a reason. And as for how many of the other guys they signed can play at this level, who knows?

I wonder somewhat about this organization, hiring a manager and a GM with no experience in indy ball who aren't familiar with indy baseball. I see this as a learning experience both for the team and the organization. Hopefully the ownership group learned their lesson and won't run the team like they did at St. Joe's. At least the AirHogs have that spiffy new $20 million ballpark to play in and promised the fans that "fun is good". That will have to do this year for the fans.

Playoffs: St. Paul > Sioux Falls

El Paso > Fort WorthChampionship: St. Paul > El Paso

As always, these are just my opinions. I disavow any claims of being an expert at this.

Best of luck to all your teams this season, and may it be one to remember!