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Quite simple... GP will have a brand new ballpark and is in a major metro area (Dallas). Wichita is an established baseball community with no competition.

It would be hard to believe that either of them will do as poorly as StJ or CB.

No. I doubt they'll say much other than "it was in the best interests of the league for them to cease operation."

The basics are (as discussed before):

Aviators fly away, ULB steps in.

Coastal Bend at Fairgrounds Field cannot compete against the Hooks at Whataburger. The MiLB (and Nolan Ryan) are simply a much better draw than indy ball with no So. TX ties. There were some "fierce" Robstown loyalists willing to support the club but hardly enough to cover expenses.

The ULB will almost certainly get the facility and test whether having 5 clubs (well) south if I-10 can compete against them (the CoBL will try to get in --and fail). Getting Robstown is clearly better than getting Wichita would have been for the ULB--except for their plans to expand to 16 teams which requires looking north.

Blacksnakes slither away, NoL steps in?

St. Joe has never drawn very well. They always had something of a "temporary" feel to them given their "last minute" creation and the (original) state of the ballpark. The 2007 season was a disaster (on and off the field as well as at the turnstile). A local investor was interested but, with CB already "disappeared," it makes more (business) sense to let it fall.

That guy still be interested in keeping indy ball at the Phil. If so, expect Griffith to make mention of it sometime during the season next year. He and the NoL more likely to want to take the risk and reverse the recent curse of league attrition. That may include reducing NoL franchise fees low enough to make it easier to turn a profit --assuming local ownership knows what magic will bring folks out to the ballpark in significant numbers. Given what I heard fans saying, he'd have a challenge unless he's got a world of business connections and a "killer" marketing plan for the area.

The (Curvi-)Linear / "Inverted-T" AA

The net result of the league changes creates an "inverted-T" of sorts since you can almost draw a smooth arc through the two divisions (North: StP, SF, SC, Lincoln, Wichita; South: EP, FtW, GP, Shreveport, Pensacola). Travel expenses remain relatively unchanged (further in the north, slightly better grouped in south with GP paired with FtW and close to Shreveport). Expansion should remain in the StP-EP-Pensacola triangle (with Denver being a minor exception). Unless Shreveport stumbles (in spite of their lease extension) there shouldn't be any more lost franchises moving forward.